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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest surprise.

But the latest race is profoundly different. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and longtime also-rans improving together. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still