A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
