A mere 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a through-ball. Back then, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When Rogers drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six games, now sit only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough query to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – however at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with rivals and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United had more shots and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the player he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
